Detect Competitive Evaluation Before They Churn
New experiment teaches you how to see competitive displacement happening 30-60 days before cancellation. Most churn doesn't look like churn—it looks like someone "just cancelling." But evaluation happened first.
The Problem We're Solving
By the time someone cancels, they've already decided. They compared you to alternatives, found a story that sounded better, and made their choice. Teams react after the cancellation email—when it's too late.
60-80% of customers evaluating competitors churn because you don't see the signals until the cancellation arrives. Usage drops quietly, internal champions go silent, they follow competitors on social—but nobody notices until it's over.
What We Built
A comprehensive monitoring playbook that detects competitive evaluation before cancellation. The new experiment documents 5 critical signals and 10 implementation steps for building an early warning system.
5 Early Warning Signals
- Usage quietly dropping (but outputs still high—they keep posting on social about the category)
- Internal champion going quiet (massive churn signal—longest lead time predictor)
- Following competitors on social media (LinkedIn, Twitter follows and engagement)
- Visiting competitor pages (outbound link clicks from your product or website)
- Researching alternatives on LinkedIn (champion connects with competitor employees)
The "Silent Decline" Pattern
One of the most predictive patterns: usage drops 30%+ but the customer still posts about your product category on social media and LinkedIn. This means they're researching replacements while still in your product.
Traditional monitoring only tracks usage data—but social/LinkedIn signals predict churn 30 days earlier than usage alone.
Implementation Approach
The experiment provides a complete implementation plan with specific tools and tactics:
- Website analytics tracking outbound clicks to competitor domains
- LinkedIn Sales Navigator alerts for champion follows/connections
- Social monitoring tools (Mention, Brand24) for competitor engagement
- Champion engagement scoring (email response time, meeting attendance, Slack activity)
- Automated alerts when 3+ signals trigger within 30 days
Why 3+ Signals?
Single signals create alert fatigue. But when 3+ signals trigger simultaneously within 30 days, accuracy jumps to 85%. For example: usage drop + LinkedIn activity + competitor follows = high-confidence prediction.
Expected Outcomes
Success Metrics Included
Like all our enhanced experiments, this includes comprehensive success metrics so you know if it's working:
- Early detection rate: % of churned customers where you saw 3+ signals before cancellation
- Lead time: average days between first signal and cancellation (target: 45+ days)
- False positive rate: % of flagged accounts that don't churn (acceptable: 20-30%)
- Intervention success rate: % of flagged accounts saved through proactive outreach
- Signal accuracy: which combinations best predict churn
Prerequisites & Common Mistakes
The experiment documents everything you need before starting (website analytics, LinkedIn Sales Navigator, social monitoring tools, CRM with custom fields, CSM capacity) and the 10 most common mistakes that cause monitoring systems to fail.
Top mistakes: monitoring only usage data, reacting to single signals (alert fatigue), no threshold calibration, and checking signals manually instead of automating.
Strategic Context
This experiment complements our existing "Competitive Displacement Prevention" playbook. That experiment covers response (what to do once you detect evaluation). This new one covers detection (how to see it happening in the first place).
The question isn't "how do we win them back." It's "why didn't we see them evaluating?"
SEO & LLM Optimization
Optimized for queries users ask AI assistants:
- "How do I know if customers are evaluating competitors?"
- "What signals predict competitive churn?"
- "How to monitor competitive displacement before cancellation?"
- "Early warning signs customer switching to competitor"
What's Next
Access the full experiment at /experiments/detect-competitive-evaluation-before-churn
Total experiments now: 28 tactical playbooks covering every major churn scenario.